Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.681663 3.673478 5.085866 7.316390 1.089389e+01 1.668411e+01 27.408682
2025-02-16 1.789513 2.830041 4.626777 8.218990 1.599239e+01 3.439826e+01 91.952471
2025-02-23 1.189208 2.088440 3.885891 8.248221 2.064100e+01 6.424632e+01 332.360933
2025-03-02 0.804783 1.530803 3.159210 7.810203 2.478415e+01 1.156953e+02 1565.843169
2025-03-09 0.621618 1.283165 2.958906 8.706588 3.731779e+01 3.229725e+02 50868.334949
2025-03-16 0.486454 1.076241 2.737764 9.495836 5.594178e+01 1.115726e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.396680 0.936734 2.622928 10.796530 9.246631e+01 7.361612e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.326434 0.815495 2.488389 12.056368 1.550764e+02 1.711620e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.257562 0.666773 2.151575 11.653283 2.049581e+02 5.365078e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.203345 0.540199 1.816708 10.715948 2.450756e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.173698 0.479454 1.716396 11.576258 4.199402e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.155075 0.447356 1.724297 13.742080 9.856832e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.139457 0.421797 1.764025 17.104049 3.410601e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.121491 0.379816 1.684264 18.956027 1.063104e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.102684 0.326999 1.499042 18.422452 2.252152e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.086106 0.277179 1.295810 16.793226 3.599098e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.077100 0.255070 1.254062 18.709229 3.150434e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.069026 0.233780 1.201066 20.372411 1.539544e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.062975 0.218979 1.182956 23.387307 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057447 0.204419 1.154848 26.343630 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050634 0.181596 1.041814 25.000579 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044336 0.159398 0.918875 22.406436 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040781 0.149176 0.889926 24.379622 NaN NaN NaN